Claims Library Entry
AI isn't making you faster
A METR controlled trial found experienced developers were 19% slower with AI tools despite believing they were 24% faster, revealing a wide gap between perceived and actual productivity. Kamil Banc argues the 5% who see real gains succeed by fully delegating complete tasks to AI and measuring results, rather than treating AI as a button to press.
Published March 21, 2026 by Kamil Banc
Lead claim
Developers predicted AI would speed them up 24% — measurement showed they were actually 19% slower.
Atomic Claims
What this article supports
Copy individual claims as needed.
Claim 1 · Source summary
METR Trial: Slower, Not Faster
In a METR controlled trial, experienced developers predicted a 24% speedup but were actually 19% slower.
Claim 2 · Source summary
Perceived vs. Measured Savings
Ninety percent of AI users say it saves time, but measured savings are 2.8% of work hours.
Claim 3 · Source summary
ROI Remains Elusive
Ninety-five percent of organizations see no measurable ROI from AI, and only 21% replaced a single task.
Claim 4 · Source summary
Training Drives Productivity Gains
Workers with over 81 hours of deliberate AI training reported 75% higher productivity than peers.
Claim 5 · Kamil's interpretation
Full Delegation Separates the 5%
The 5% who see real gains pick one task and hand it to AI completely.
Evidence
Context behind the claims
Quote
"Fast.ai calls this dark flow, a state where AI tools generate the feeling of productivity without the output."
Key statistics
24% predicted speedup vs. 19% measured slowdown
METR's controlled trial gave 16 experienced developers the best AI tools for 246 real tasks; their predictions diverged sharply from measured outcomes.
2.8% measured savings
While 90% of AI users claim the technology saves them time, measured savings amount to only 2.8% of work hours.
95% no measurable ROI
Despite widespread AI adoption, 95% of organizations report no measurable return on investment, and only 21% have replaced a single task with AI.
75% higher productivity
EY found workers who invested 81+ hours in deliberate AI training reported 75% higher productivity than colleagues using the same tools without training.
Supporting context
The article synthesizes findings from multiple controlled studies and surveys, including METR's randomized trial of experienced developers and large-scale workforce surveys from Tech Policy Press, HBR, and Verasight. The consistent pattern across sources is a wide gap between perceived productivity gains and measured outcomes, which Fast.ai terms 'dark flow.' For practitioners, Kamil Banc's recommendation is a low-risk experiment: select one repetitive task, delegate it entirely to AI for five days, and measure both time saved and whether the output survives without human intervention. This approach treats AI as a skill requiring deliberate investment, consistent with EY's finding that extensive training correlates with substantially higher productivity.
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Banc, Kamil (2026, March 21, 2026). AI isn't making you faster. AI Adopters Club. https://aiadopters.club/p/ai-isnt-making-you-fasterClaims Collection
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